EDC Weekly Commentary by Peter G. Hall
By Peter G. Hall
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Podcast Description
Each Wednesday, a concise analysis of global issues for Canadian Exporters.
| Name | Description | Released | Price | ||
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1 |
TPP: Not Just Another Acronym - February 9, 2012 | Get used to it, because it’s fast becoming a part of international trade language. Yes, there’s another acronym to learn, but it’s no fly-by night buzzword. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, is here to stay, and it’s gaining momentum. What is it, and why does it matter for Canada? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/8/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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2 |
Mexico: High Stakes Situation - February 2, 2012 | Much has been said in recent years about the promising Mexican economy. It is often mentioned in the same breath as the mighty BRICS, given Mexico’s increased international focus in the past quarter-century. This has paid great dividends, but has exposed Mexico to today’s wobbly world economy. Does global uncertainty threaten to render the promise hollow? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/1/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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3 |
Trade Stats Speak Volumes - January 26, 2012 | Data is normally the analyst’s best friend. Add a dollop of volatility, and it can fast become a foe. Data’s wacky wanderings of late have foiled many a forecast and contributed to an exaggerated, widespread sense of unease. International trade data were no exception, volatile right through the end of 2011. Do they give any hints of where global trade activity is headed this year? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/25/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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The End of Globalisation? - January 19, 2012 | We’ve had a fair amount of time to think about a topic that surfaced before recession hit us just over three years ago. The end of globalisation is still being discussed, and the longer the world battles meagre growth, the more intense the conversation is likely to become. But does that suggest any particular outcome – is the fabric of international commerce really coming apart at the seams? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/18/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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5 |
2012 Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic - January 12, 2012 | Turbulence in 2011 led to the observation that for many, surviving the year was an achievement. Manifold risks remain, and most early-year predictions are being adjusted downward. In a year where the ultimate is easier to see than the immediate, bold pronouncements for 2012 deserve a healthy dose of skepticism. This is the delicate context for EDC's Winter 2012 Global Export Forecast. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/11/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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In Search of an Economic Engine - January 5, 2012 | Three working days into the New Year and it’s back to reality: bills to pay, an overstuffed inbox to deal with and more of the same scary world news we tried to forget over the holidays. Did the multitude of happy wishes for 2012 instil hope, or do they ring hollow as we contemplate what may lie ahead? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/4/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Surprise of 2011: The Year of Our Discontent - December 15, 2011 | Thumb through the many disruptions the world has experienced in 2011, and you can easily sympathize with the task of narrowing surprises down to just one. To make matters worse, the shocks came at a point of particular economic vulnerability. But is there one that was truly a game-changer, one that will leave its mark for years to come? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/14/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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What's Behind the Plunge in Trade Confidence? - December 8, 2011 | Can we trust our instincts? These days, that's a tough call. We are bombarded with data that is slumping one day and soaring the next. Worse still, the related analysis seems to ride the same roller-coaster, fogging the view even more. The rough ride is weighing on sentiment, and Canadian exporters are no exception: in mid-autumn, their confidence plunged to the fourth lowest level on record, throwing Canada's positive trade outlook into doubt. Are all bets now off? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/7/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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India at a Turning Point? - December 1, 2011 | It's no stretch to argue that India has the greatest long-term potential of any economy on the planet. It also faces monumental hurdles to achieving that potential. India's physical infrastructure is famous for all the wrong reasons, a predicament that its $1 trillion spending is pledging to remedy. The country's political problems are legendary, and will take much more than money to fix. Does the promise of this vast market outweigh the risk? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/30/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Don’t Get BRIC’d In - November 24, 2011 | Canadian exporters are scanning the globe for business opportunities like never before. Frustrated by weak demand in traditional export markets and a high Canada-US exchange rate, outward-looking businesses have expanded their perspective. There’s lots of buzz about fortunes to be made in BRIC countries. But too often, the talk stops there. Where are the solid opportunities beyond the BRICs? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/23/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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US Recovery: Not Now, Not Never - November 17, 2011 | Frustration is building. It is now almost two-and-a-half years since the US recession officially ended. We would normally be well into the next growth cycle by now. Not this time. Instead, growth sagged in the summer, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and news is mostly negative. Talk of double-dipping even surfaced amid speculation of long-term stagnation. Will the US economy ever recover? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/16/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Supply Shocks: Permanent Damage? - November 10, 2011 | Exogenous shocks are the bane of economic forecasters. When negative, they are everyone's enemy. These are the unpredictable events that can radically alter an economic outlook, and 2011 was hit with significant ones. In the opening days of this year, just as global economic momentum was rising, political turmoil rocked North Africa. Just weeks later, Japan was hit with a devastating earthquake and tsunami. Now, Thailand is beset with severe flooding. Will the impact of these events prove temporary, or will there be more lasting effects? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/9/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Animal Spirits and the Economy - November 3, 2011 | You ride this elevator every day. But today is different - it is stopped between floors, and you're not happy. Neither are the other seven passengers. One grabs the emergency phone, another presses the alarm button. Nothing. Then without warning, the elevator pitches sideways, first this way, then that. Elevators weren't made to do that. Panic sets in. Passengers scream, one furiously presses buttons, another re-tries the phone, two try to pry the door open, and a brave soul tries to get out the top. Lots of activity, but little reason – a scene that could easily, yet unnecessarily, get everyone hurt. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/2/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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The Import of Capacity - October 20, 2011 | It takes teamwork to build an economy. Economic development plans at the local, regional and national level play a key role. Over the years, much has been written and myriad plans have been implemented by economic developers. Does all the economic transformation we have seen in the past 20 years in any way change the shape of modern economic development? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/19/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Following the Lead - October 27, 2011 | Gloomy headlines are a dime a dozen these days. Ah, but pessimism still sells as much as it ever did. Trouble is, it also spreads, and more ominously, can be self-fulfilling. There is evidence to back up the bleary blogs, but there are also key pieces of data that defy the doom. Canada’s composite leading indicator for September seems to be in the former camp – but is it really pointing downward? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/16/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Two Speed Dials to Watch - October 13, 2011 | Frustrated onlookers might say that recent data is for the birds. At present, the birds are flying south, and it seems like high-frequency financial indicators are doing the same. The daily stream of red numbers on financial tickers has again inspired the doomsayers, and sent confidence plunging from already-low levels. Is the slide presaging a double-dip, or is something else going on? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/12/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Brazil: Ocean of Opportunity - October 6, 2011 | Soaring over the giant city of Sao Paulo, one gets an instant impression that Brazil is on the move. Among the endless sea of buildings there are ample new construction projects. Roads are jammed full of commuters, and are being upgraded to accommodate even more. Industry continues adding to last year’s surge, leaving its telltale brown smudge on the sunlit skyline. Is the nascent grinding of the global economic gearbox a threat to this upbeat picture, or will Brazil’s resilience persist? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/6/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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18 |
The Global Feeding Frenzy - September 29, 2011 | Early in 2008, rising prices sparked widespread worries about food shortages in Southeast Asia. Further price increases ensued as households staged a run on local food supplies – creating the tangible appearance of a food crisis when in actual fact, food supplies were quite sufficient to meet the demands of the market. Fortunately, when flows resumed, calm was restored. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/28/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Despite Disorder, Orders Are Up - September 22, 2011 | Demand for tranquilizers is up again. Worry about economic deceleration is rising, and with it, fears of a double-dip recession. Forecasts are being revised down. Markets remain volatile, and additional bad news out of Europe is not helping. In the confusion, it is unclear whether the summer slowdown was temporary, or a more serious setback. Are all the indicators pointing south? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/21/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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20 |
Trade Data Renews Hope - September 15, 2011 | Nothing puts a smile on the face these days like a good month of job growth. But the frowns etching the faces of leaders and lackeys alike tell today’s tale - employment numbers have not impressed, increasing the focus on this key indicator. Concern is motivating new job-creation programs in various countries as a means of kick-starting economic activity. Will the programs meet expectations? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/14/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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21 |
Jobs: Engine, or Caboose? - September 8, 2011 | Nothing puts a smile on the face these days like a good month of job growth. But the frowns etching the faces of leaders and lackeys alike tell today’s tale - employment numbers have not impressed, increasing the focus on this key indicator. Concern is motivating new job-creation programs in various countries as a means of kick-starting economic activity. Will the programs meet expectations? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/7/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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22 |
Singapore’s Clues About Global Trade - September 1, 2011 | International trade flows have aptly illustrated the global economy’s three-year roller-coaster ride. By January 2009, global exports had tumbled 19% in just six months. But since then, world exports have vastly outpaced GDP growth, rising at a 16% annualized pace with hardly a pause. Until recently. Activity peaked in March, but has since fallen 2.5%. Is this temporary, or a more serious setback? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/31/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Oil Overreaction? - August 25, 2011 | High oil prices seem to have become a fact of life. Many have grudgingly advised that we had better get used to it, and move on. Analysis repeatedly cites insatiable emerging market demand and limited accessible supplies as key factors. It’s tough, if not impossible to refute these arguments, but similar reasoning in the early 1970s led to wacky forecasts. Are today’s triple-digit projections reasonable? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/24/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Germany: Global Growth Engine? - August 18, 2011 | With all the troubles swirling around Western Europe these days, one economy stands out. By all appearances, Germany is an island of sanity in a fiscal and financial world gone mad. While growth in the rest of the world is faltering, impressive performance has lifted consensus growth for Germany to 3.7%, the envy of the G7. Does Germany have a secret antidote for what ails the world economy? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/17/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Losing our Cool in the Summer? - August 11, 2011 | Predictability is a long-sought but elusive state in the modern economy. It seems particularly elusive at the moment. Unusual uncertainty and volatility are delaying the global economy’s healing process. We all have some tolerance for turbulence, but at a certain point even the strongest stomachs start to churn – and at that point, the resulting rush for a remedy can wreak havoc with the economy. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/10/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Austerity Verity - August 4, 2011 | When it comes to frequency of word usage in the media, 'slowdown' is way up in the rankings. For a world economy that has been in the yo-yo zone since early 2009, that might be a ho-hum insight. Yet the OECD sees a widespread, multi-country slowdown occurring in a context of elevated risk. Is this just more pre-recovery turbulence, or is there more to the current soft performance? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/3/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Shipping Caught in Price Doldrums - July 28, 2011 | There’s a lot of talk about inflation these days. Too much, perhaps. But there’s at least one place that prices don’t seem to be flexing their muscles: ocean freight rates. That might make some sense from a global demand perspective, but not when sky-high fuel prices are considered. What’s going on? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/27/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Inflation in the EU: Really? - July 21, 2011 | A galloping charger needs restraints. Not so the placid horse. Which one characterizes current EU inflation? The ECB sees the former, and has seen fit to grasp the reins more tightly, raising key interest rates for the second time in three months. Analysts are divided, and the stakes are high. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/20/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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29 |
Summer Setback - July 14, 2011 | Two steps forward, one step back. That seems to be the current cadence of the world economy. While it suggests progress, it is frustrating. The momentum that was clearly building over the past year has recently downshifted. Is this the best the global economy can do, or are better times ahead? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/13/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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US: Poised for a Big Comeback? - July 07, 2011 | Worried about the US economy? You’re not alone. US equity markets fell for six weeks in a row as nervous investors piled into US treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down to 2.8%, the lowest level since November. Key indicators from various sectors of the economy have swooned. Is this just more evidence of a capricious market, or is this chapter 1 of the US version of Japan’s ‘lost decade’? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/6/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Surprise Rise in Trade Confidence - June 30, 2011 | It’s a tough time to gauge business sentiment. During the spring, news of natural disasters, political turmoil and the sorry state of public finances contrasted with signs of growing economic momentum. Perhaps this is why a prominent survey of Canadian SMEs made waves last week, simultaneously signalling both larger hiring intentions and plunging confidence. Are Canadian exporters as gloomy? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/29/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Economic Models: In a Funk - June 23, 2011 | If market volatility gives economic models a headache, then they have a whopping migraine at the moment. Critically dependent on past trends, models are now having to absorb the mega-changes of the last growth cycle, and so far, their record is sketchy. What are these model-rocking changes? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/22/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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That’s A Good Question! - June 16, 2011 | Our cross-Canada Let’s Talk Exports forecast presentations are usually followed by lively question-and-answer sessions. Without this interaction, we would not get a true sense of the concerns, the fears and the aspirations of Canada’s exporters. I’m happy to report that this year was no exception, and the following is a synopsis of the questions uppermost in the minds of our audiences this spring. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/15/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Loonie at Par: Loony? - June 9, 2011 | Our spring Let’s Talk Exports roadshow wrapped up last week. Over the 15-city tour, one key concern was expressed without fail: the soaring Canadian dollar. Above par since January, the Northern buck has many believing it is stuck there. Has parity now become permanent, or is some relief on the way? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/8/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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MENA Dilemma - June 2, 2011 | If shocks are the bane of forecasts, this year we are doubly cursed. Thus far, the world has been wracked by multiple natural disasters. Equally unpredictable was the unrest that gripped the Middle East and North Afric (MENA), and it has likewise shaken confidence. If seemingly bullet-proof regimes fell so swiftly, can we predict with any confidence future fallout in the region – and the world? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/1/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Decoupling: Yes and No - May 26, 2011 | Prior to the global financial and economic meltdown, observers were heralding news that the world was decoupling. As the last growth cycle peaked, many market watchers saw divergent growth as a sign that the world was moving away from a single economic growth engine. Indeed, emerging market growth was roaring ahead, and even Europe seemed to be diverging from US growth trends. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/25/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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The Diversification Dividend - May 19, 2011 | As the next growth cycle approaches, Canada faces a daunting list of challenges. An aging population. Unfunded pension liabilities. Ballooning health care costs. The sustainability of public finances. Poor productivity growth. A lack of innovation. An irrepressible currency. High consumer debt loads. The list goes on. When world growth revives, will we join in or get left behind? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/18/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Countdown to Launch Underway - May 12, 2011 | Scan any serious recent report on global economic woes, and housing markets figure prominently. They illustrate both the consumer and financial excesses of the last growth cycle. They are an equally apt illustrator of sluggish post-recession growth. But housing is a tiny fraction of GDP. And in a highly globalized world, residential construction is still one of the most domestically-oriented industries. Should an outward-looking world really care about this relatively small segment of the economy? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/11/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Housing is Foundational - May 5, 2011 | Scan any serious recent report on global economic woes, and housing markets figure prominently. They illustrate both the consumer and financial excesses of the last growth cycle. They are an equally apt illustrator of sluggish post-recession growth. But housing is a tiny fraction of GDP. And in a highly globalized world, residential construction is still one of the most domestically-oriented industries. Should an outward-looking world really care about this relatively small segment of the economy? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/4/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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US Debt Outlook: A Warning in the Warning - April 28, 2011 | Just when we thought we had enough shocks to deal with, Standard and Poor's published a negative outlook on the US sovereign rating. The market reaction was swift: the Dow Jones Industrial average immediately shed 140 points, or 1.1%, amid a bevy of alarming media stories. But US bond yields hardly budged, and within 24 hours were back comfortably below the levels seen prior to the agency’s warning. Is the bond market really blasé, or is there danger of a more severe reaction ahead? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/27/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Still in Synch? More or Less - April 21, 2011 | Losing 20% of anything you value is not fun. Whether it’s crops, staff members in your company, life savings or lunch money, the loss hurts. Recession stung the world by carving more than 20% from global exports. But after a two-year climb, export activity finally closed that gap in December 2010. Are all regions sharing in the rebound, or has it created clear winners and losers? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/20/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Surprise South of the Border? - April 14, 2011 | It’s an economic adage well known to Canadians: the US sneezes, and we catch pneumonia. We don’t suffer alone – this delicate constitution also afflicts the only other nation to share a long stretch of US border. It’s only natural to expect that Mexico was ravaged by the US-led recession, and that it has shared the frustrating convalescence that followed. How is the Mexican economy doing? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/13/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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A Shock Felt Around the World - April 7, 2011 | Like that famous shot that preceded the Great War, the shock that devastated north-eastern Japan on March 11 has a global reach. As Japan struggles to cope in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, the impacts of the catastrophe on the highly-integrated global economy are beginning to sink in. Is the world economy resilient enough to overcome the consequences of the shock? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/6/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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BRIC to BRICS - March 31, 2011 | Getting in to the country club is a mark of success, a coming of age. Among countries, country clubs have the same appeal. Until 2008, the big one to get into was the G-7. Nowadays, the brass plate on the front door of the coveted club reads ‘BRIC’. And it seems poised to take on a new member. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/30/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Construction: Rebalancing Act - March 24, 2011 | The construction industry is not for the faint of heart. It experiences the great heights of an economic boom, and the deep chasms of recession. Every downturn takes many casualties, and it takes a lot of strength to survive. The current economic cycle is again testing the industry’s nerves. The downturn has been particularly long – will recovery come soon enough to keep today’s survivors going? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/23/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Trade Numbers Disconcerting - March 17, 2011 | The world economy received its latest checkup last week with the release of a bevy of international trade data. Hopes were high that the numbers would yield further evidence of rising global economic momentum. Instead, the results were mixed – not what anyone wants to hear at checkup time. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/16/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Profits at Odds With the Dollar? - March 10, 2011 | Nerves are getting raw – again. Just as Canada’s domestic sector is getting ready to hand the torch over to exporters, the dollar has moved decisively beyond the parity mark. The current climb is building on a recent up-trend that began in mid-2010. You might expect to see the effects in Canada’s corporate profits data, but the most recent numbers look strong. Is there a simple explanation? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/9/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Innovation is Critical - March 3, 2011 | It’s a really bad day. You’re half a world away and web access in your hotel is down indefinitely. You left your air card on the plane, and there’s no internet café nearby. Getting out of your cab, the Blackberry fell into a puddle. Zap. Your IT hotline is busy. You’re staring a 7AM deadline in the face, and you are down to a word processor, a spreadsheet and an external memory device. Disaster. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/2/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Inflation Consternation - February 24, 2011 | Looking for a clear message on the world economy’s current state? You may not want to start with price statistics. At present, you can find runaway inflation, stability, disinflation and deflation, depending on where you look. Can we make any sense of the mixed messages? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/23/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Beginning of a Weak Spell for Japan? - February 17, 2011 | Global economic momentum is on the rise. Improvement in the US outlook is one of the key reasons. But not all countries are benefiting. Japan, which recently lost its ‘number 2’ status to China, appears to be faltering. Is this just a temporary blip, or a signal of something deeper? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/16/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Europe’s Test Affects the Rest - February 10, 2011 | Amid the hoopla of monetary union in 1999, certain Eurosceptics warned that the Zone would not survive its first recession. But even they didn’t dream at the time that the first recession would be the worst in over 60 years. It is taking its toll, with countries on the periphery of the Union testing the limits of the fraternal bond. Fiscal weakness in peripheral nations is not just the greatest test for Europe, but for a fledgling world economy eager to launch into the next growth cycle. Will we pass the test? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/9/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Household Debt Clock is Ticking - February 3, 2011 | Prodigal. Imprudent. Profligate. Adjectives like this have been used liberally in recent years to portray the unfettered, debt-financed spending habits of American consumers. At the same time, much more flattering language has been used to describe Canada’s exemplary financial system, well-managed fiscal policy and stable domestic growth. The wording has taken on a worried tone. Recent domestic growth was aided by a considerable run-up in personal debt. Is the nascent concern warranted? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/3/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Reprieve from the Relapse - January 27, 2011 | Need a refresher on the world economy’s recent travels? Canadian exports tell the story: ravaged by the global recession, rescued by a rapid rebound, and now repressed by a relapse that has fogged up the view of the future. In contrast, Canada’s domestic economy has been unusually resilient, rescuing us from the regular roughing-up global recessions usually bring. But momentum on the home front is fading. Are exports ready to pick up the slack and keep the near-term outlook afloat? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/26/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Opportunities Beyond the BRICs - January 20, 2011 | Browse media reports on any given day and you’ll find a litany of stories on the BRIC countries, and with good reason. Their growth record is stunning, and they have strong future potential. They each possess huge internal markets that give new meaning to the word ‘scale’. Their economic rise is increasing their influence in world affairs at the same time as established powers are grappling with diminished growth potential. It’s hardly surprising that the world is eager to harness this potential. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/19/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Exporters: Cautiously Optimistic - January 13, 2011 | It’s good to enter a new year with a healthy dose of optimism. This is no small task for Canadian exporters, who saw robust growth in the first half of 2010, but are now faced with the dual challenges of weakening global demand and a stubbornly high Canadian dollar. Are these challenges weighing on the Canadian exporting community, or is there optimism in spite of the obstacles? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/12/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Ready for the Real Recovery? - January 6, 2011 | 2010 may well become known as the year of the false start. Growth that looked every inch like true recovery fizzled by mid-year, feeding the confusion and uncertainty that is the hallmark of the recession’s aftermath. At the start of a new year, it would be nice if we could shrug off our economic troubles, and start with a clean slate. Unfortunately, we bring with us challenges aplenty.If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/5/11 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Surprise of the Year: Price Paradox - December 23, 2010 | Looking back over 2010, there was no lack of drama. The year began with a bang: news that we ended 2009 with a surge of growth combined with evidence of continuation into the New Year. Most were proclaiming recovery. But just as abruptly, the engine stalled in the second quarter as the effects of stimulus faded. Then came the successive waves of sovereign default fears. In all the turbulence, there are many possible candidates for the big surprise. Can we narrow it down to one? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/22/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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An Import-ant Source of Growth - December 16, 2010 | Negative numbers in any country’s national accounts are generally bad news. They mostly show up as periodic declines in activity, and we have seen a lot of that lately. Imports always show up as a negative number, by definition, and consequently are often looked at as ‘bad’. But at the world level, one’s imports are another’s exports, and as such point to sources of demand and opportunity. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/15/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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In India’s Perennial Problem, a Solution - December 9, 2010 | India’s modern-day growth path is the envy of most nations. Annual GDP has vaulted ahead by an average of 6.4% over the past 10 years, and the economy handled the global recession well. Growth this year and next is averaging 8.4%, a little over India’s own speed limit. While the West frets about double-dipping, India is trying to prevent overheating. It may get some unwanted help: key constraints already hinder the economy, and unaddressed, threaten to short-circuit India’s stellar expansion. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/8/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Big Economies in a Policy Squeeze - December 2, 2010 | The recent recession was shock enough, but it was at least rivalled for effect by the public policy response that followed. Overnight, Western economic policy turned on a dime. Crisis led to a swift, significant and highly synchronized global response, with governments everywhere pledging to cut rates, spend, and do ‘whatever it takes’. Suddenly, the policy world seemed a very different place. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/1/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Preparing for a Rebound in European Trade - November 25, 2010 | International trade has been the punching bag of the global recession. Accustomed for years to leading global growth, trade fell by 11% in 2009 as the global economy shrank 0.6%. A partial revival occurred in the 6-month growth spurt that began last fall, but renewed slowdown has analysts wondering whether this economic episode is a permanent setback for trade and the process of globalization. Is the future of international trade in doubt? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/24/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Big Banks – Turning the Corner? - November 18, 2010 | Faith in the global banking system was shattered in late 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Only extraordinary intervention by governments prevented the systemic, cascading bank failures last seen in the 1930’s. Even so, there are lingering questions about the health of banks. They are once again profitable, but are they still vulnerable to shocks? Will bank lending recover, and if so, when? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/17/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Consumer Comeback? Not Yet - November 11, 2010 | Like it or not, the world’s consumers are a critical piece of the global recovery puzzle. Without a revival in this key sector, the world economy will remain in neutral. Can we expect this mighty economic engine to fire up soon, or is it more likely to continue drifting for some time to come? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/10/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Chinese Growth: Actual or Artificial? - November 4, 2010 | Emerging market titans seem to be flying through economic turbulence with remarkable ease. China has continued to impress onlookers with consistent, double-digit GDP growth. Many see China as an anchor of world growth. So far, so good. But can China keep things going as world growth slows? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/3/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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The Moment of Truth - October 28, 2010 | Chaotic movements in world economic output gave way to a new phase at mid-year. Suddenly, it seemed that everything got quiet. Far from an antidote to chaos, this is a disquieting quiet, a mid-rebound slowdown that doesn’t normally occur. It’s a shock, and many wonder why it has happened. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/27/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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The Perplexing Path of Prices - October 21, 2010 | It’s easy to get dizzy tracing the recent path of prices. General price movements have oscillated from inflation to disinflation and back again over the past two years. Earlier this year, strong growth rekindled inflation worries in many economies, prompting much discussion about the unwinding of loose monetary conditions, and resulting in tightening actions by various monetary authorities. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/20/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Commodity Oddity - October 14, 2010 | May, 2010 was just a few days old when the world economy hit a troubling inflection point. Concerns about the viability of Southern European economies combined with slowing growth to sour recovery hopes. Pundits are now proclaiming modest growth in unison, but commodity markets must have the earplugs in. Prices should be falling, but instead they are going the other way. What’s going on? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/13/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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OECD Barometer: Weather is Worsening - October 7, 2010 | If increased technology has any downsides, then a prominent one would have to be information overload. When it comes to the economy, data overload can be a problem, and given current market uncertainty, it seems as if each one of the multitude of indicators is examined in minute detail for the latest clue about the world economy’s movements. Many have a very similar message that is neatly summarized in the OECD leading indicator. What signal is this prescient measure sending? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/6/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Europhoria: Short-Lived? - September 30, 2010 | Markets are hungry for good news, and they gobbled up the second-quarter GDP report for Europe with gusto. The numbers were indeed impressive, and birthed a torrent of econo-chatter about the possibility of an EU-led global recovery. Is this jump in growth the start of something big? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/29/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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CAC Region Preparing for Recovery - September 23, 2010 | Aside from the occasional news flash, the world’s attention is not usually centred on Central America and the Caribbean (CAC). But this smaller segment of the New World still carries enormous strategic importance, and it significance for the world economy and global international trade is on the rise. Canada is currently well placed to participate in the region’s dynamism. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/22/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Trade: Canada’s Great Hope - September 16, 2010 | Gloom abounds in the world economy, and with good reason. Surviving the current episode is critical, but growth eventually will recover, and hopes for longer-term prosperity will brighten. Strategies for success in the coming growth cycle are already being crafted. Is Canada well-placed to succeed? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/15/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Second-Quarter Shock in America - September 9, 2010 | That famous hole in Wyoming where central bankers and other key economy-watchers convened two weekends ago was a fitting metaphor for the post factum sentiment of delegates. Or at least, the American ones. Sentiments were decidedly gloomy, noteworthy for a group that eschews herd hysterics. The mood was fed by the latest US GDP data, released just a day before the conference. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/8/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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73 |
Profits: Prophet of Renewed Weakness? - September 2, 2010 | Corporate profits, volatile at the best of times, are usually the punching bag of recessions. Likewise, as an economy emerges from recession, profits can yield key clues about the durability of recovery. For Canada, this profit cycle is alive and well. What is this prophet saying about near-term prospects? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 9/1/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Japan: Dark Clouds Obscure the Sunrise - August 26, 2010 | Last week began with double-barreled news from Japan that grabbed the airwaves. The industrial giant was bumped out of second place among world economies by China. This occurred as growth in Japanese GDP slowed to a crawl in the second quarter. The world seemed shocked, but it shouldn’t have been. China’s ascendancy was as imminent and predictable as Japan’s nascent slowing. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/25/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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In Search of Growth...Elsewhere - August 19, 2010 | Recent international trade statistics corroborate what is obvious in other economic indicators: growth is slowing worldwide. For the trade stats, it’s a new phenomenon, but other, forward-looking data suggest that weakness will linger through the second half of this year. Governments, worried enough about local demand, are busy implementing trade promotion policies. Are they likely to succeed? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/18/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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76 |
Labourers in Hiding - August 12, 2010 | Of the myriad monthly indicators that market-watchers dissect, few generate the palpitations induced by labour force data – both before and after release. It’s no surprise. Job growth is the anchor of demand, one of the key determinants of economic well-being. A convincing recovery in employment has yet to occur, increasing the angst of the monthly labour-data vigil. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/11/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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US Housing: Recovery Interrupted? - August 5, 2010 | History will no doubt point to the US housing market as the hallmark of the past decade’s excesses. The heights achieved were only exceeded for drama by the spectacular and protracted plunge of the market, and the collateral damage sustained by the financial sector. Activity has been particularly weak since late 2008, and to date, there are scant signs of a reprieve. Is the carnage almost over? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 8/4/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Awaiting the Prudence Payback - July 29, 2010 | Lambasting big-economy consumers for their excesses has become a popular recession-time sport. Chastened by the exposure of their self-engineered plight, many consumers have hunkered down, quietly working down excesses and deleveraging. Their activities are obvious in consumer spending data; this large chunk of the world economy has been a soft spot. Is the new prudence paying off? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/28/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Widespread Weakness in Core Inflation - July 22, 2010 | Economic rebound, localized capacity constraints and base effects kept global inflation-chatter active in the opening months of this year. In recent weeks, there’s a kind of hush setting in on the topic. Have other issues crowded this one out, or is recent inflation performance telling a deeper story? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/21/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Second-Half Softening Tests World Economy - July 15, 2010 | The pressure is rising. Slower growth is etched all over current data, dampening the bullish mood that dominated the airwaves in the first quarter. Markets are in yet another turbulent phase as we move into the post-stimulus phase of the rebound – perhaps the trickiest period in the past two years. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/14/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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US Auto Sales On Hold? - July 8, 2010 | America’s obsession with vehicles was shaken by the onset of recession. Firms that were the icons of US auto production for multiple generations were suddenly on the brink of extinction. Hotly contested government bailouts bought them time, and sales rebounded handily – a great relief for Canadian auto sector exporters. But in June, US vehicle sales dipped again. Is this cause for concern? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 7/7/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Canada’s Day - July 1, 2010 | Canada is capturing world attention on a number of fronts these days. Although better known for our diminutive, self-effacing persona, Canadians could be forgiven for taking special pride in key recent developments. These are especially welcome, given the general abundance of bad international news in the past 24 months, and are a boost to Canada ahead of the coming economic recovery. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/30/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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83 |
Baltic Dry Index Tumbles - June 24, 2010 | Summer has arrived in the Northern hemisphere, and those expecting a quieter pace may get more than they bargained for. As we enter the season, a growing number of key international indicators are on the wane. One of the more dramatic is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an important barometer of global trade activity. In recent days, the Index has seen an alarming freefall. What’s going on? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/23/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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84 |
Domestic Strength Boosts Trade Confidence - June 17, 2010 | Trade confidence is up? It hardly seems possible. Earlier this year, maybe, when a bevy of strong economic reports set the world abuzz with recovery-talk. But now, with heightened concern about Southern Europe’s public finances, worries about China’s performance, new cracks appearing in US demand, tumbling commodity prices and a stubbornly strong Canadian dollar? In this context, a rise in Canadian trade confidence seems out of place. Why the increase? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/16/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Uh-oh, China Slows - June 10, 2010 | Weary of manifold dismal economic reports, solace-seekers have turned to the balm of Chinese data in the past 18 months. They haven’t been disappointed. But that may be changing. Recent stats are taking the shine off the impressive record, casting doubt on the fledgling global economic rebound. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/9/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Leading Indicator in Trouble? - June 3, 2010 | Of all the indicators of Canada’s economic rebound, perhaps none is more convincing than StatCan’s Composite Leading Indicator (CLI). The Index has now risen for 11 consecutive months, at an impressive average monthly pace of 1%. In the latest survey, 8 of the 10 components increased, clearly a solid result. This indicator is on a roll, but is there a danger that it might actually roll over? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 6/2/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Recession and Rebound: Impact by Industry - May 27, 2010 | For Canadian exporters, it was hard to hide from last year’s storm. Canada’s international sales experienced their biggest pounding in recent memory, and every industry was affected. The impact was greater for those on the leading edge of the storm. Is recovery likewise varied by industry? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/26/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Preparing for the “New Normal” - May 20, 2010 | By now it is clear that the global recession is over. That means we are on our way back to normality, but there are many reasons to expect it to be a different sort of normality than many seem to expect. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/19/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Industrialized Sovereigns in Trouble - May 13, 2010 | News about worsening public finances in Western Europe rocked global financial markets last week, and revealed an underlying fragility in confidence. Apparently, patience with the on-again, off-again approach of policymakers to the problem zones wore thin. Was the reaction overdone, or overdue? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/13/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Is Copper’s Optimism Well-Founded? - May 6, 2010 | Up is in vogue again. Many economic indicators are pointing upward, and many analysts now have a good dose of up-timism. One of those is copper, the orange metal with the innate sense of the world economy’s near term path. Recent movements in copper prices suggest that the world economy is revving up for a very strong rebound. Is copper right again, or are we witnessing a rare false start? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 5/5/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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The Critical Zone - April 29, 2010 | It was the best of times. In late 2008, it turned into the worst of times. Then came abject pessimism, followed by a period of uncertainty and volatility. Sentiment was tentative as the world economy entered 2010, but the resumption of growth has lifted spirits, and prompted economy-watchers to hail the long-awaited recovery. Is this nascent rise the real thing, or does recovery still elude our grasp? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/29/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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92 |
Alberta’s Other Economy - April 22, 2010 | Think about Alberta, you think about oil and gas. Reserves in the feted oil sands are vast, rivalling those of Saudi Arabia. Just two years ago, widespread fear that the planet was running out of oil vaulted Alberta’s extensive and politically secure supplies to the centre of the global stage. With all the attention, it’s easy for the casual observer to forget Alberta’s other economy, and it’s potential. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/22/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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India: Will Politics Hinder Progress? - April 15, 2010 | India’s economy may have enormous future potential to grow. There may even be enough money available to create the infrastructure needed to facilitate that economic potential. But does India, with its storied recent history of political fragmentation, and in some cases outright gridlock, want economic progress and prosperity enough to overcome its inhibiting political legacy? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/15/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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94 |
India’s Infrastructure Plans: Dreams or Reality? - April 8, 2010 | Explosive growth became the norm for India in the global economy’s boom years, and few pundits disagree that long run growth potential is better here than anywhere else. India’s prowess was tested in the global recession, but the subcontinent has rebounded handily. Its sights are now trained on longer term growth in an ambitious new 5-year plan. Will India achieve its high-growth objectives? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/8/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Big Spenders Still Hesitant - April 1, 2010 | In economic banter, recovery is a word that has been ahead of its time for over a year. It was dusted off following the global plunge in output last year, and has been well-used since. But the debate on the timing of a convincing global recovery remains open. What do large-economy consumers think? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 4/1/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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96 |
Caribbean Economies: Less Fun in the Sun - March 24, 2010 | Northerners are now returning from the annual Spring Break trek to southern destinations. Once again, Caribbean nations extended a traditional warm welcome to visitors, although cooler weather and a not-too-hot world economy may have kept their numbers down. Caribbean countries have felt the ill effects of the global downturn directly. Are they poised to fully harness economic recovery? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/24/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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97 |
Industrial Production: 2-Speed Recovery? - March 17, 2010 | Recent data have many pundits hailing emerging markets as the world economy’s new growth engine. Industrial production statistics are a key part of that argument. Do they indeed suggest that there is a 2-speed recovery underway, and that emerging markets are leading the charge? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/17/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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98 |
The Diversification Solution - March 10, 2010 | “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Good investment advice, but easy to ignore when the return on a certain asset is particularly good. Canadian international trade faces the same dilemma. We know that more diverse trade would be a good thing, but over the years, the yield on trade with the US has been too tempting. But do we ignore trade diversification at our own peril? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/10/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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99 |
Reversal of Profit Plunge Underway - March 3, 2010 | Corporate profits are among the hardest-hit indicators in recessionary episodes, and unfortunately this time around the situation is no different: Canadian corporations saw profits tumble sharply for three successive quarters through mid-2009. Declines cut across a broad swath of industries, but in most sectors, growth has resumed. Does this just spell the end of declines, or a decisive U-turn? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 3/3/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Commercial Construction: Recovery’s Wrecking Ball? - February 24, 2010 | Lagging indicators are the bane of economic recovery. They are the final waves that recessions send crashing into an economy, and depending on their timing, can wreak havoc with nascent recovery. One such indicator is commercial construction, and the substantial and sustained weakening of this key sector has market-watchers worried. Will it prove to be the recovery’s wrecking ball? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/24/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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101 |
Inflation Muted Despite Surging Indexes - February 17, 2010 | Latest monthly price data for OECD economies are now hitting the wires, and are sure to re-kindle inflation-chatter. Economic uncertainty has led to disparate views of near-term price movements, at the risk of confusing onlookers. Is the resumption of economic growth creating inflation pressures? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/17/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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102 |
Woes in Greece Reveal Broader Fiscal Concerns - February 10, 2010 | Fiscal finances the world over are feeling the deep effects of recession. Support for the ailing world economy was swift, substantial and synchronized in late 2008, creating large deficits that are now being widened as unemployment and lower business activity erode revenues. Hints of downgrades to AAA-rated countries, let alone the multitude of lesser credits, are a hot news item. In this context, it is no surprise that Greece is the latest draw for the economic paparazzi. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/10/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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103 |
Sustainable Surge in US Growth? - February 3, 2010 | The US economy surprised everyone in the closing months of 2009. Preliminary figures show the economy churned out impressive 5.7% annualized growth. As the US led the world into recession, it is expected to lead us out. Does the fourth-quarter, 2009 surge herald the beginning of recovery? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 2/3/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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104 |
Back in the Black? Yes and No - January 27, 2010 | There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope. Following a tough 2009, Canada will see the return of growth this year. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/27/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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105 |
China’s High-Wire Act - January 20, 2010 | Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/20/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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106 |
Exporters See Better Times Ahead - January 13, 2010 | One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse. In fact, 2009 dealt exports their worst drubbing in recent memory – by a factor of six, no less. In this context, it is hardly surprising that exporters are now feeling much more confident about near-term prospects. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/13/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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107 |
Stage Set for a Happier New Year - January 6, 2010 | It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted. Global activity levels are now much lower than they were in late 2008, and a true world recovery remains elusive. Are we in for more of the same this year, or can we look forward to better times? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 1/6/10 | Free | View In iTunes |
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108 |
Surprise of the Year: The Retreat of Risk - December 16, 2009 | It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable. Markets were jolted into sobriety with the stark realization that risk appetite had for a long time been out of step with reality. Earnest recalibration of risk was underway. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/16/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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109 |
Gloom in Global Shipping - December 9, 2009 | As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief. Accustomed to hefty annual increases, traders are weathering a 17% drop in global volumes thus far in the year, and there are few signs of rebound. Will traders’ fortunes revive in the coming year? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/9/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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110 |
Financial Market Turbulence: A Shock? - December 2, 2009 | If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us. Dubai World’s announcement last week of suspended payments on $60 billion of debt is a huge wave we are still navigating, and the jury is still out on its lasting effects. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 12/2/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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111 |
Indonesia: Tiger-in-Waiting - November 25, 2009 | On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population. Through membership in the G-20 and other international fora, Indonesia is gaining recognition as a global force. Politics has often restrained economic progress, but recent developments give hope that even on this front, things are looking up. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/25/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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112 |
Recession’s Impact Varies by Industry - November 18, 2009 | A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/18/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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113 |
Path to Recovery Challenging for Canada's Regions - November 11, 2009 | This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/11/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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114 |
Americans are Saving Again - November 4, 2009 | Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 11/4/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
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115 |
10 Reasons to Reject Protectionism - October 21, 2009 | Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. | 10/21/09 | Free | View In iTunes |
| Total: 115 Episodes |
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