The Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel
By Michael Covel
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Podcast Description
Trend Following (www.trendfollowing.com) is a world class research firm. Michael Covel serves as President. In 1996 Covel co-launched TurtleTrader.com. It has attracted millions of visitors. His first book is "Trend Following: Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets". This must have classic is available in German, Japanese, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), Korean, French, Arabic, Turkish, Portuguese and Russian. His second book "The Complete TurtleTrader" is the only narrative account of trader Richard Dennis and his student traders nicknamed the 'Turtles'. It has been translated into German, Japanese, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), Korean and Russian. His newest books are "Trend Commandments" and "The Little Book of Trading". Covel's first film documentary is "Broke: The New American Dream".
| Name | Description | Released | Price | ||
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1 |
Todd Miller Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to Todd Miller, a trader who runs a systematic trend following firm, Availeth Capital, with partner Jim Byers. Availeth is a small fund which was started in February 2011, and Covel relates Miller's start to his chapter in 'The Little Book of Trading' on trader David Druz. Covel and Miller discuss how Miller got his start working at Fidelity, and how observing the annual returns of one of Fidelity's biggest mutual funds after the tech bubble burst led him to adopting a trend following mindset. Miller put in some serious studying during his next few day jobs at National City Bank and PNC, and he discusses the path he took that eventually led him to starting Availeth Capital. Miller and Covel also speak about the importance of in-person interaction; the issue of survivorship bias; how trend following is the only strategy that can take advantage of the uncertainty that is coming; and how some trend following traders have followed other passions once they've made their billions. Covel also discusses his upcoming 10,000 (!) page book, Trend Following Analytics. | 5/25/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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2 |
Jack Schwager Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to writer and trader Jack Schwager, author of the Market Wizards series. Schwager's new book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, is now out. Covel and Schwager discuss some of the commonalities between the many traders Schwager has interviewed, and the lessons that can be gleaned from their diverse approaches. Schwagger's new book opens with a quote regarding the importance of even-mindedness from rock climber Alex Honnald, and Covel and Schwager discuss how topics seemingly unrelated to trading can contain relevant lessons. Many of the other traders profiled in Hedge Fund Market Wizards are discussed, including Ed Thorp, Steve Clark, Jaffray Woodriff, and Ray Dalio. Covel asks Schwager what his big takeaways from his interviews have been, and the lessons he's learned from talking to some of the most successful traders in the game. Further topics include how markets behave differently in different environments; the importance of asymmetric positive skew trades; how diversification is the "only free lunch on wall street"; how Schwager defines risk; and the "gain to pain" ratio. | 5/22/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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3 |
James Rohrbach Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to trader and educator James Rohrbach. Rohrbach has been trading for 40 years, created his RIX index, and runs an educational service at Investment-Models.com. While he calls himself a "market timer", he's a trend follower. Rohrbach and Covel talk about why buy and hold is dead, and the psychology behind people desperately clinging onto it. Rohrbach and Covel discuss why - even when buy and hold supplies a winning outcome - it still might not be a good strategy. Further topics include using a 15/30 day crossover as a quick and simple system; why Rohrbach doesn't short; and making sure your feelings don't overrule your process. | 5/18/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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4 |
Francisco Vaca Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to Francisco Vaca of Vaca Capital Management. A math whiz from an early age, Vaca first pursued a career as a particle physicist. Always intrigued by the financial markets, Vaca started an investment club with his family while pursuing his Ph.D., and his scientific background led him to a "stats" approach to investing. When institutional funding stood in the way of working on a particle accelerator, a unique opportunity to work in the financial markets beckoned. After answering a mysterious newspaper advertisement in 1996, Vaca ended up working at the legendary C&D Commodities (see book: 'The Complete TurtleTrader'); he was handed a copy of Jack Schwager's 'Market Wizards', and quickly realized the achievements of his new employers. Vaca and Covel also get to the bottom of the source of profits in the futures markets; why people who are on the losing side of trades still play the game; the importance of diversification; and why you should take every signal you can. Pay attention, Vaca brings wisdom (see: www.vacacm.com). | 5/17/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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5 |
Larry Tentarelli Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to trader Larry Tentarelli. Tentarelli started trading his own account after leaving Merrill Lynch in 2003. Covel explores some of Tentarelli's influences: from Napoleon Hill (taking accountability for your own actions), to Jesse Livermore ("The money isn't made in the daily fluctuations; the money is made in the big swings"), to Ed Seykota ("everybody gets what they want"). You don't have to be a computer engineer or rocket scientist to come up with a trading system, nor do you have to have all the time in the world: Tentarelli spends less than 15 minutes a day on average trading his own programs. He also relates several "light bulb" moments he had that led him into trend following: from an investment in Chinese oil to reading about Tom Basso's experiments with coin flips to determine entry points. Further topics include the distinction between predictive and reactive technical analysis; the importance of connecting and asking questions to those who have more experience than you; and the idea of knowing what you want out of the market. | 5/15/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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6 |
Douglas Stewart Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel speaks to Douglas Stewart of Sherwood Forest Capital Management. An education major in college, Stewart was introduced to the financial services world before ever entering the classroom as a teacher. Stewart started his career in finance around 1995, and he shares some of his experiences coming of age during the dotcom bubble. Once the bubble burst, he immersed himself for ten hours a day for several years studying books such as Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards", which led him to his lightbulb moment; he explains how this led him into the trend following space. Stewart also relates an interesting experience he had at a panel in November of 2008 where he explained, in song, how he wasn't able to predict the markets. Afterwards, an esteemed guest brought up Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan" - and somehow missed the point that Stewart was following the markets rather than following luck. This leads to conversation about how ego can hurt you in the trend following world, why a majority will never really want to adopt a trend following perspective, and the zen of accepting that you'll never be able to accurately predict where the markets might go. | 5/10/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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7 |
Mark Melin Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael speaks to Mark Melin, a managed futures expert, editor/writer for Opalesque, and author. Melin has become a defacto investigative reporter for the MF Global scandal. Covel and Melin consider the MF Global story from the very beginning, back to the very basics, and discuss the political context, why the story isn't front page news, and how it might effect you in the long run. A sobering conversation. | 5/3/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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8 |
Episode 12: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael covers several disparate topics and brings them together into a basic trend following message about thinking clearly. First, Michael discusses former Lehmen Brothers veterans starting a "systematic innovative volatility fund". Michael cuts through the jargon and gets down to the core issue: at the end of the day, a trend following strategy has to be clear, and this one sounds confusing. Michael also discusses a newsletter from Hugh Hendry, although technically a fundamental trader, Michael brings up how Hendry might indeed be a "closet" trend following trader. Hendry's core ideas are important to trend following philosophy, such as taking control of your own destiny, and the belief that the unexpected will happen. "You're on your own, you must take ownership of your own destiny". Next, Michael talks about pain and how the latest Jack White single might give some insight into the pain you can find yourself in if you don't have clear thinking (a plan). | 5/1/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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9 |
Tim Pickering Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to Tim Pickering, founder/president and lead portfolio manager of Auspice Capital. Pickering has over 15 years of commodity and financial trading experience. Prior to forming Auspice, Pickering was Vice President of Options Trading at Shell Trading Gas and Power in the Houston and Calgary offices. He began his career at TD Securities in Toronto in their elite trading development program and gained experience in a wide expanse of capital market products including foreign exchange, bonds, money markets and derivatives. Ultimately, Pickering held the Senior Trader position for the energy derivatives portfolio. He has extensive experience trading OTC and exchange traded options, futures, swaps and quantitative trend following systems. Covel and Pickering discuss some of his beginnings, "black boxes", indexing, and classical vs. "next generation" trend following. | 4/27/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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10 |
Tom Basso Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel interviews Thomas H. Basso, a trader who was called "Mr. Serenity" when he was profiled in Jack Schwager's "New Market Wizards". Basso was a stock and commodities trader who was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He is the author of two books, "Panic-Proof Investing" and "The Frustrated Investor". Basso became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Although he is now retired, there's no half-life for experience in the trend trading world, and Basso has a wealth of knowledge that is relevant to today's trader. Covel talks to Basso about the psychology behind his trading; how he kept his - and his clients' - emotions in check; and how being an entrepreneur can make you think differently. Basso also discusses his beginnings - buying his first mutual funds at age 12 - and how he moved from a chemical engineering position to his career as a trader and money manager. Further topics include how trading for clients can be different than trading for yourself, and the importance of concentrating on process vs. outcome. Enjoy! | 4/24/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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11 |
Damon Vickers Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to Damon Vickers, author of The Day After the Dollar Crashes, frequent guest on Coast to Coast & the Glenn Beck Show, and Managing Director & CEO of Damon Vickers and Company. Vickers has a very "Zen" outlook to both his life and to trading; he's a practicing Buddhist, and he discusses how this background applies to trend following trading. Vickers shares some of his beginnings - including a night involving a car accident which helped to lead him down the path he is on now. Topics include the "moment of now"; the importance of accepting the will of the market, and not your own; separating price from any societal preconceptions; and the difficulty of getting across a trend following perspective to the mainstream media. Vickers also discusses his book, The Day After the Dollar Crashes, and how it's important to separate the story from what the market is dictating. | 4/12/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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12 |
Episode 11: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | What does golfer Bobby Jones have to do with trend following? Michael discusses a new IBM commercial featuring Jones which has a number of ideas relevant to trend following - why the process is much more important than the outcome, and how you can't engineer predefined performance results. Consistency in your system, not trying to predict exactly how something might unfold, and sticking to the process are key concepts in trend following. Also: will the huge amount of data that you now have access to change how you approach the markets? Probably not - if you're a trend following trader. Michael discusses the difference between data and knowledge. A healthy dose of attitude throughout - no apologies. | 4/10/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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13 |
Original Turtle Michael Shannon Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel interviews original Turtle trader Michael Shannon. In a timeless archival interview given while doing research for his book, The Complete TurtleTrader, Covel talks with Shannon regarding Shannon's experience in the Turtle program with Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. Shannon offers historical insights and anecdotes regarding the legendary Turtle story. Topics include Shannon's unlikely background; the personalities of Dennis and Eckhardt; why Turtles with outsider backgrounds were generally more successful; and whether or not Dennis and Eckhardt were inspired by the film, "Trading Places". In the second segment of this podcast Michael interviews trader and investor Jim Byers. In the 2006-2008 period, Byers started studying trend following; since then, he's started a fund with his partner, Todd Miller. Covel and Byers discuss how trend following can still be a winning game even if you aren't right the majority of the time. Further topics include more in depth "light bulb" moments that Byers has had since taking up trend following. Byers was also Michael Covel's first one-on-one in-person trainee: www.trendfollowing.com. | 4/3/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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14 |
Charles German Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel talks to trader Charles German (of Charles German Capital Management). Charles has been trading for 20 years; he started when he was a teenager. Charles discusses two pivotal moments he had: one at age 19 which led to his beginnings in the Chicago pits, and one in 2008 after the real estate crisis which led to him trading full-time and adopting a full time trend following philosophy. He also shares a story about business politics which completely changed his life in the Chicago trading world. Further topics include risk management, optimal bet size, drawdowns (and why it's an unfair "scarlet letter" in the trend following world), analyzing the traders that have come before you, and trading in geographic isolation. | 3/29/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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15 |
Nick Radge Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael talks to Nick Radge (www.thechartist.com.au) author of the new book, "Unholy Grails". Nick has been trading and investing since 1985. During this time Nick has worked for numerous international investment banks and spent time on the trading floor of the Sydney Futures Exchange. In 1998 Nick returned to Australia and started his own hedge fund and until 2005 he was an Associate Director at Macquarie Bank. Michael and Nick discuss Nick's beginnings; the analogy of hitchhiking to trading; the necessary emotional constitution needed to successfully stick with a trend following trading strategy; the popularity of algorithmic trading jargon; and risk management. | 3/25/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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16 |
Episode 10: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | What can a famous magician teach us about trend following? Looking for patterns, and we all want to see them, is trouble. There's another more insidious side, too: the magician himself. Who are the magicians of the financial world? Next: Instead of thinking we're at information overload, most people think we don't have enough information. Michael discusses the book "Too Big to Know" by David Weinberger, a book that should be on the mind of any trend following trader. Michael also comments on Richard Russell's famed newsletter and how there is less and less of a need for human capital. Also: How did Michael overcome his outsider status and break into trend following? | 3/23/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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17 |
Episode 9: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael questions the "shiny, happy" approaches of Apple and the Kony 2012 campaign and pushes people to remain skeptical. He also discusses the idea of "making friends & ignoring enemies", and why an email he received from a particularly unhappy investor might indicate a misguided approach to trend following trading. | 3/15/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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18 |
Episode 8: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael explains the philosophical underpinnings needed to benefit from trend following trading and why now is the great time to view the world from a trend following perspective. Framed by biographical, political, and historical details--from his own experiences in the Dotcom bubble, through the 2008 housing crisis, and into the present--Michael gives insights into where we've been, and how trend following gives us the edge when it comes to the unknown future. | 3/8/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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19 |
Mike Shell Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel interviews Mike Shell (of Shell Capital Management). Shell, a trend following investment manager out of Tennessee, uses ETFs as his vehicle for trading. In their conversation, Shell expands upon his core principles. This leads to topics that include the psychology of being a trend following trader, uncertainty, risk, behavioral finance, and the paradoxes of trend following. | 3/6/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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20 |
Episode 7: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael announces his forthcoming book, Trend Following Analytics, and looks into his mailbox to find Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letter. Mike discusses the letter, comparing and contrasting Grantham's value investing perspective with a view from the trend following world. Also: is it enough to simply understand the classic Turtle rules? Mike discusses how some of the Turtles failed spectacularly and how it's more than just the numbers, but rather a 360 degree approach to trend following is what you really need to win. | 3/2/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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21 |
Charles Faulkner Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel interviews Charles Faulkner (a master Neuro-linguistic Programming practitioner, trader, author, and trainer). In this unique conversation, Charles and Michael discuss the topics of mental mapping, risk, expertise, the metaphor of trading to motorcycling, and how human nature and biology influence investment decisions. | 2/29/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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22 |
Bob Pardo Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel interviews Robert Pardo (of Pardo Capital Limited and author of The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies). Michael discusses with Bob some of his beginnings, his philosophies, and the idea of risk. Insights from a trader who has seen it all. | 2/23/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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23 |
Episode 6: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael covers both the psychology and the systems side of things. First, Michael talks in depth about the writings of Seth Godin (author of Linchpin and a very quotable blog) and how his philosophy relates to the psychology of trend trading. Next, Michael talks about two new trend following systems with two very peculiar names: "Tyrannosaurus Rex" and "Triceratops". These systems are an addition to Michael's current teachings. He explains the new systems, where they get their names from, and the research involved in their creation. | 2/17/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Episode 5: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Why does Michael Covel exist? How did he become the person that famed trend trader Larry Hite called *the* point person for Trend Following Trading? Why is it important to dig for information, maintain skepticism, and question authority? Michael explains the how and why in an illuminating biographical segment. In the next segment, Michael asks: how can we get our freedom back? Why is fundamental analysis not the way to profit, and why is relying on the 24/7 news cycle and the world of information akin to being on a constant treadmill that leads to nowhere? The idea is freedom--both monetary and otherwise--and Michael explains how tethering ourselves to social media and the incessant flow of information can be a dangerous distraction in the search for this freedom. In a discussion of several news articles and a general analysis of the information that surrounds us every day, Michael asks, "how do we get our freedom back?" | 2/15/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Michael Dever Interview; Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael Covel interviews Michael Dever author of "Jackass Investing: Don't Do It: Profit From It" | 2/13/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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Episode 4: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Does it feel like 1999? Michael discusses an article he read which implies this, but was 1999 so bad? The NASDAQ doubled. It came down eventually, but if the trend was going up: who cares? If you followed the trends, you could have doubled your money. The problem is that when the bubble pops, people don't know when to get out. Michael discusses the importance of having an exit plan with both losers and gainers, and how we can potentially profit in a situation like 1999 by using trend following. Michael also gives his take on MF Global situation. In the following segment, talks about what motivates him to get the message of trend following out into the world. Discussion of nurture vs. nature, and how the TurtleTraders are a great illustration of this concept with regard to trading. Purposeful practice is key. Michael discusses how great traders are successful because of constant practice and devotion to their own rules and principles, rather than some sort of inborn ability. In the final segment, Michael discusses his recent radio interview with Jordan Kimmel. In the interview, Michael spoke about how it's impossible to define a trend until it's over; you can't pick bottoms, and you can't pick tops. It's impossible. However, as a trend follower, you can set your stops--both losing and winning. The important thing is not having a psychological tie to being "right" and making correct predictions. The important thing is to make money, and this is what trend following is concerned with. | 2/6/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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27 |
Episode 3: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Michael expands on the "Quick Commandments" set forth in his book, Trend Commandments. Topics include the importance of setting rules and systems for yourself with entry and stop points; maintaining a positive attitude, open mind, and zen-like approach in how you treat your investments; and the importance of maintaining a healthy skepticism of self-proclaimed "investment experts". Next, Michael discusses his views on Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat. As a trend follower, why the "the world is flat" is a great concept: You only need the price to enter into a market regardless of how much you know about it. Trend following gives you the opportunity to participate in whatever opportunity comes along. In the final segment, Michael expounds upon the precarious source of financial information in the media - we're all in "The Truman Show". Michael discusses the importance of placing your trust in the objective facts rather than media hysteria, and how trend following trading reinforces this concept. | 2/2/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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28 |
Episode 2: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel. Originally broadcast 01/31/12. | 1/31/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
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29 |
Episode 1: Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel | Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel. Originally broadcast 01/26/12. | 1/26/12 | Free | View In iTunes |
| Total: 29 Episodes |
Customer Reviews
Great podcast
The podcast is more about the Zen of inventing, not about a specific method of investment. This is one of my favorites podcasts as it has a fresh, realistic view about the investments as it reflects from society. Thanks MIchael!
Podcasts
Excellent Work Michael, the podcasts are invaluable to my education as a trend following trader. Any chance of having Larry Hite as a guest??
Extremely Helpful Info
The podcasts are short but I see that as a positive since I don't have time to listen to someone beat around the bush. I like Mr. Covel's "get-to-the-point" style. As for criticisms, there are only two...First, a couple of the podcasts are merely defensive replies to criticisms of the Trend Following book...and although important to the author, are of little use to others. The tone of those couple of podcasts is like a criticism of the book has offended his religion or something. Second, the blurb at the end..."For more information..." is EXTREMELY annoying to anyone listening to the podcasts in sequence. Overall, though, the information contained in the podcasts is pure gold...stuff you can't find elsewhere. They are well worth listening to.
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