Global Banking 2020
Ernst & Young & Knowledge@Wharton
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As we look ahead to 2012, global banks face an array of unprecedented challenges. While the long-term future is cloudy, most experts agree that today’s volatile business environment is not just a temporary interruption before a return to business as it used to be. Banks that prove successful over the next decade are likely to look very different from those that flourished prior to the global financial crisis.
What will a prosperous international bank look like in 2020? In order to answer that question, in early 2011 we embarked on a comprehensive, methodical scenario-planning project. The undertaking brought together leaders from Ernst & Young’s Global Banking & Capital Markets practice with faculty members from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, along with executives of large banks with global operations. Through a series of discussions led by Decision Strategies International, a firm specializing in scenario planning, the group developed views of four possible and widely varying futures ranging from, in the following order, relatively static to incredibly dynamic: Business as Usual, Financial Issues, New Markets and Change, Change, Change.