Demographic Trends and Problems of the Modern World Oxford University

Professor David Coleman gives the second lecture on Demographics, where he looks at different ways in which governments and demographers have collected population data. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/

Professor David Coleman gives the first lecture in his Demographic Trends and Problems of the Modern World series. He describes the challenges such as of a world population of 7 billion and how demographers are tackling these challenges. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/

There are many examples, from the ancient world to Nazi Germany, of attempts to protect or to increase the birth rate and hence population size. Slides to accompany Prof David Coleman's talk on birth control from governments. Few can be shown to be successful. France, since 1939, is an exception. The Nazi example put population awareness off the agenda in the West but the persistence of low fertility, with the population ageing which it causes have brought population concerns to the fore in many countries: Italy, Germany , Russia, Korea , Japan. The relatively high fertility of some countries (Scandinavia, UK) is unintended by policy, and probably owes much more to consistent cultural preferences and welfare policies unconnected with demographic aims. Cash incentives probably just bring forward births already intended. Relatively high fertility seems to depend upon a consistent policy of family support, or the ability to make arrangements through the private sector as in the US, on which parents can depend, and a well developed gender equity in which burdens are shared between the parents. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/

There are many examples, from the ancient world to Nazi Germany, of attempts to protect or to increase the birth rate and hence population size. Slides to accompany Prof David Coleman's talk on birth control from governments. Few can be shown to be successful. France, since 1939, is an exception. The Nazi example put population awareness off the agenda in the West but the persistence of low fertility, with the population ageing which it causes have brought population concerns to the fore in many countries: Italy, Germany , Russia, Korea , Japan. The relatively high fertility of some countries (Scandinavia, UK) is unintended by policy, and probably owes much more to consistent cultural preferences and welfare policies unconnected with demographic aims. Cash incentives probably just bring forward births already intended. Relatively high fertility seems to depend upon a consistent policy of family support, or the ability to make arrangements through the private sector as in the US, on which parents can depend, and a well developed gender equity in which burdens are shared between the parents. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/

Fear of population decline has haunted states ever since states existed. Population size was the basis of the power, security and prosperity of any political entity. Slides to accompany Professor David Coleman's on the fear of population decline. The great disparity of economic and military power between the West and the Rest from the 18th century temporarily put population size into the shade. As that advantage ebbs, population size has emerged once again as a major factor in international relations, especially as population decline has become a reality in Germany, Japan and is forecast for many others. Many demographers believe that world population will begin to fall by the end of this century. However not all concerns about population decline are justified. Being small is certainly no obstacle to very high levels of living standards (Switzerland, Sweden, Iceland) or of reported happiness (Denmark). Some undesirable economic consequences follow the process of population decline but seem likely to be mild as long as long as decline is slow and eventually stops. Considerable environmental advantages would arise from smaller population - it may indeed become essential globally if climate change is not to force it upon us. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/

Fear of population decline has haunted states ever since states existed. Population size was the basis of the power, security and prosperity of any political entity. Slides to accompany Professor David Coleman's on the fear of population decline. The great disparity of economic and military power between the West and the Rest from the 18th century temporarily put population size into the shade. As that advantage ebbs, population size has emerged once again as a major factor in international relations, especially as population decline has become a reality in Germany, Japan and is forecast for many others. Many demographers believe that world population will begin to fall by the end of this century. However not all concerns about population decline are justified. Being small is certainly no obstacle to very high levels of living standards (Switzerland, Sweden, Iceland) or of reported happiness (Denmark). Some undesirable economic consequences follow the process of population decline but seem likely to be mild as long as long as decline is slow and eventually stops. Considerable environmental advantages would arise from smaller population - it may indeed become essential globally if climate change is not to force it upon us. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/