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Risk Intelligence

How to Live with Uncertainty

This book can be downloaded and read in iBooks on your Mac or iOS device.

Description

We must make judgments all the time when we can’t be certain of the risks. Should we have that elective surgery? Trust the advice of our financial adviser? Take that new job we’ve been offered? How worried should we be about terrorist attacks? In this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher Dylan Evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our RQs in order to make better decisions every day.

Evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person’s RQ which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken by tens of thousands of people. His research has revealed that risk intelligence is quite different from IQ, and that the vast majority of us have quite poor risk intelligence. However, he did find some people who have very high RQs. So what makes the difference? Introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings, Evans identifies a key set of common errors in our thinking that most of us fall victim to and that undermine our risk intelligence, such as “ambiguity aversion,” overconfidence in our knowledge, the fallacy of mind reading, and our attraction to worst-case scenarios. We are also regularly led astray by the ways in which information is provided to us. Citing a wide range of real-life examples— from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the financial crisis—Evans illustrates that sometimes our most trusted advisers, including the experts and analysts at the top of their disciplines, don’t always give us the best advice when it comes to risk evaluation.

Presenting his revolutionary test that allows readers to evaluate their own RQs, Evans introduces a number of simple techniques we can use to build our risk assessment powers and reports on the striking results he’s seen in training people to develop their RQs. Both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, Risk Intelligence will fascinate all of those who are interested in how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.

From Publishers Weekly

Jan 09, 2012 – A lecturer in behavioral science at University College Cork School of Medicine in Ireland, Evans (Placebo: The Belief Effect) defines risk intelligence as the ability to estimate probabilities accurately, such as the probability of a car crash or the truth of a rumor. Evans explores everything from climate change predictions to Homeland Security s color-coded system that supposedly rated the risk of terrorist attacks. Evans outlines why many are so bad at estimating probabilities with sometimes devastating consequences, such as in the financial crisis and 9/11 and how one can become better at it, since it s a vital skill for gaining success in life. With an arsenal of studies and statistics, he covers fascinating topics, including battlefield strategies, overconfidence, lies, and the tendency to follow the crowd, despite obvious evidence they are wrong. Much is contrary to accepted beliefs, for instance, the mind-reading illusion : research shows we don t read other people as well as we think we do. He concludes with the results of his online risk intelligence test. After studying the techniques detailed here, readers of this valuable manual will be better able to gauge the limits of own knowledge and increase their ability to make fact-based decisions.
Risk Intelligence
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  • $11.99
  • Available on iPhone, iPad, iPod touch, and Mac.
  • Category: Psychology
  • Published: Apr 17, 2012
  • Publisher: Free Press
  • Seller: Simon and Schuster Digital Sales Inc.
  • Print Length: 288 Pages
  • Language: English
  • Requirements: To view this book, you must have an iOS device with iBooks 1.3.1 or later and iOS 4.3.3 or later, or a Mac with iBooks 1.0 or later and OS X 10.9 or later.

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