The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have...
From Publishers Weekly
© Publishers Weekly
Great book one chapter too long
I enjoyed reading this book. It was entertaining and informative. I am surely biased and most of this book was confirming sentiments and feelings I already had. However, the clarity, depth and detail seemed to flounder in the chapter on terrorism and could have been dropped or more fully fleshed out. Though this may simply be a reflection of the current state of terrorism forecasting. Great read I would suggest to anyone.
This electronic version has asterisks in the text that, when touched, go to a blank page. But the numbered footnotes seem to work. Doesn't anyone check this sort of thing before the book is released?
Fix the footnotes
I’m having the same problem with the footnotes as 1bayguy. The starred notes actually are on the “blank” page, but they’re initially covered by the exit menu and the font is microscopic.
- Category: Politics & Current Events
- Published: Sep 27, 2012
- Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
- Seller: Penguin Group (USA) Inc.
- Print Length: 560 Pages
- Language: English