By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
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NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: email@example.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
||CleanEp. 43: The People of España||Episode 43 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Catalonian independence (00:45), good information and bad information in US domestic politics (19:00), and the possibility of the US changing its approach to permissible s...||10/10/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 42: Shahar Avin on Artificial Intelligence||- - Episode 42 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk's Dr. Shahar Avin. We discuss the prospects for the development of artificial general intel...||10/5/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 41: Welton Chang Interview—From the DIA to Superforecasting||Episode 41 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview Welton Chang, a fellow Superforecaster, former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, stationed in South Korea and with two deployments to Iraq. He is ...||9/30/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 40: Too WEIRD||--||9/27/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 39: Can We Trust AI Judgments?||Episode 39 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott announce that IARPA's new Hybrid Forecasting Competition is looking for volunteer forecasters (00:19), interrupt their own discussion to explain that some of the podcast audio was...||9/5/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 38: Overtaken by Events IV (V?)||Episode 38 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US news stories prior to a brief, upcoming vacation, including what Trump says vs. what Trump actually believes (00:52), our military presence in Afghanistan (7:19),||8/27/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 37: Colin Teichholtz Interview||Episode 37 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert and Scott interview Colin Teichholtz, a partner and portfolio manager at global investment firm Pine River Capital about how he made money arbitraging used books in college and what makes someone go...||8/9/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||ExplicitEp. 36: Twice as Bright, Half as Long||Episode 36 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott discuss the PredictIt group forecasts about the possibility of Trump leaving office by the end of 2017 or 2018 (00:19), voter suppression (34:45),||7/31/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 35: Interview with Elaine Rich||Episode 35 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott talk with Elaine Rich. Elaine was with the Good Judgment Project since its first year, is a Superforecaster, and a dispensing pharmacist at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.||7/17/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 34: Football With Knives||Episode 34 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about Romanian politics and Romanian tax policy (0:48), the recent special election in Georgia's 6th congressional district (15:17), the Republican healthcare bill's chances in the Senat...||7/7/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 33: Models||Episode 33 of NonProphets, in which Atief and Scott welcome back Robert, who discusses his vacation (00:12), before the three of them give their thoughts on the Comey hearing (5:00), Hawaiian superstitions (7:59), violence in politics (9:44),||7/3/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||ExplicitEp. 32: The Fisher Protocol||Episode 32 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief and Scott (Robert’s on vacation) discuss: Have probabilities broken? (1:30). Comey – Who’s the liar? (4:30). Polarization is leading to violence, but there are bright signs of humanity across t...||6/22/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 31: Special Counsel - Fast, Slow, or No?||Episode 31 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Special Counsel and forecasting whether recent events will lead to impeachment or resignation of Trump. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com,||5/20/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 30: The Brief Wondrous Tenure of Jim Comey||Episode 30 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott—recorded the day after it happened—discuss the surprise firing of FBI Director James Comey (1:11), whether Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will appoint Special Counsel ...||5/19/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 29: Happy Summer Bets and Catastrophes||Episode 29 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss Happy Summer Bets and Natural Catastrophes (01:30), Living on Lava Plains (14:00), Forecasting Summer Blockbusters (22:00), Top Summer Songs (33:33),||5/13/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||ExplicitEp. 28: Rare Birds||Episode 28 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what makes a good leader (1:10), the French election (6:13), President Trump's first 100 days (11:55), President Trump's suggestion that we consider heading to Mars a deca...||5/6/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 27: The French Election, the Future of NATO and the EU||Episode 27 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Atief's foray into the world of Trump bets (00:47); the danger of not staying centered in the truth (11:06); is Jason Chaffetz is not seeking re-election a harbinger for 2...||4/30/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 26: What Does Chaos Mean to a German? (part zwei)||Episode 26 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their discussion with German Superforecaster and economist Roman Hagelstein. Their discussion covers Syria (00:12) as well as Germany and Syrian refugees (9:22),||4/26/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 25: What Does Chaos Mean to a German?||Episode 25 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk with German superforecaster and economist Roman Hagelstein about his background (0:15), how he gamed the Good Judgment Project’s forecasting markets (1:34),||4/20/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
||CleanEp. 24: Striking Syria||Episode 24 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss where America will stand in the World Corruption Index from Transparency International at the end of 2017 (00:27), the probability of the US striking Assad's government or f...||4/19/2017||Free||View in iTunes|
Truly a casual Forecasting podcast
Intelligent and interesting.
The presenters are careful to set the pacing just right for listeners who are new to Forecasting (such as myself) as well as experienced Forecasters.
Well done all around. Can't wait for the next one.
STAR star STAar stary star star starS! * * * * * !!!!!1111one Star 5!!!!!
Intelligent and thought provoking
The hosts are very knowledgeable and well read in global politics and the art and science of decision making. A much needed rationale antidote to US election fatigue. A++